Peak season is evolving fast, and 2025 brings new challenges for businesses looking to capitalize on the busiest shopping period of the year.
From shifting shopping patterns to rising ad costs, brands need to be prepared to adapt their strategies. And with consumers expecting more flexibility in how they shop and pay, gift cards offer a powerful tool to boost engagement, drive revenue, and extend the shopping season beyond traditional peak dates.
The global gift card market, valued at USD 818.52 billion in 2022, is projected to reach USD 1,897 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.46%, highlighting the increasing reliance on gift cards as a revenue driver, especially during peak periods when flexibility and speed matter most.
Get ready for a shorter holiday shopping window
The overall holiday shopping season may feel more condensed despite the post-Cyber Monday period actually being one day longer than in 2024. (December 2 - December 24, 2025, compared to December 3 - December 24, 2024). However, fewer weekends in December and shifting shopping behaviours mean retailers will need to adapt their strategies. Expect fierce competition, higher CPMs, and rising CPCs as brands go all-in to capture consumer attention in a high-pressure window.
With only four weekends in December instead of five, retailers will need to rethink their approach. Offering gift cards as a promotional tool can help capture early sales from deal-hungry shoppers while allowing them to finalize their purchases later - reducing pressure on stock availability and fulfilment. Notably, digital gift card sales grew 17.1%, pushing them into the top spot over physical products, making them an even more essential tool in this landscape (GCVA & KPMG, 2024).
Cyber Monday falls late... again
Cyber Monday 2025 lands on Monday, December 1st, slightly earlier than last year’s December 2nd, but still on the later side. This extends the peak shopping season, making budget allocation more complex.
To maintain momentum through December, brands should consider promoting digital gift cards as a flexible spending option. These keep revenue flowing even after shipping deadlines have passed and allow customers to continue engaging with your brand right up until Christmas Eve. 75% of consumers now prefer digital gift cards over physical ones because of their ease of use and instant delivery, reinforcing their role in last-minute holiday shopping.
The rise of 'Fake Friday' continues
Black Friday (Friday, November 28, 2025) isn’t a one-day event anymore. Consumers expect deals to drop earlier, and ‘Fake Friday’ - the Friday before Black Friday - is now a key battleground. Brands should be ready for competitors to launch early promotions and decide whether to jump in early or hold out for the main event.
Offering bonus gift card promotions during these early sales can be a smart way to capture customers looking for long-term value rather than just short-term discounts. With B2B now accounting for 72% of the overall gift card market (GVCA & KPMG, 2024) businesses can also leverage gift cards as part of their corporate incentives, helping them stand out from traditional discounts.
Discounts will need to be more aggressive
Shoppers are getting savvier, and their expectations are growing. In 2024, brands offered an average of 5% more in discounts year-over-year, and this trend isn’t slowing down. With consumers still feeling the pinch, only the biggest and best discounts will stand out.
Rather than slashing margins on every product, brands can use gift cards strategically offering them as rewards for higher spend or bundling them with purchases to increase perceived value while protecting profitability. Customer acquisition through gift card incentives surged by 19.1%, proving that they’re an effective tool for attracting new customers without eroding brand value.
How to win in peak 2025
With these shifts in mind, brands need to rethink their approach for what will be a shorter, more intense peak season. If you’re not planning already, start now:
1. Budget pacing & strategic spend
- Look at your historical data to find the most profitable periods and focus your budget there.
- Think beyond peak - building brand awareness before Q4 strengthens your positioning when competition is at its fiercest.
- Consider pre-selling through gift cards to lock in revenue before the busiest period hits.
2. Prepare for higher CPMs & CPCs
- Ad costs spike every Q4 - expect higher CPCs and CPMs as the battle for eyeballs intensifies.
- Use efficiency-based biddings like Target ROAS on Google or Cost per Result on Meta to maximize impact.
- Leverage gift cards in advertising promotions to improve conversion rates and offset rising acquisition costs.
3. Keep an eye on competitors
- Watch what your competitors are doing - early discounts, aggressive promotions, and shifting strategies can impact your conversion rates.
- Have a flexible promo plan so you can adapt quickly if the market shifts.
- If direct discounting isn’t viable, consider loyalty-based incentives like gift card bonuses to stand out.
Why gift cards should be part of your 2025 strategy
Gift cards are more than just a last-minute option, they're a strategic tool that helps brands:
- Capture early revenue without worrying about stock shortages.
- Drive higher average order value when used as incentives.
- Extend the shopping season beyond shipping deadlines.
- Engage new customers who receive gift cards and return to shop later.
The industry is booming across multiple use cases, from customer acquisition to employee rewards, with employee benefits growing 16.9% and rewards & incentives seeing 11.6% growth. Meanwhile, cashback programs have skyrocketed, with a 340% increase in cashback gift card usage on the Tillo Platform from 2023 to 2024.
Peak 2025 is shaping up to be shorter, sharper, and more competitive than ever. Strategic planning, smart budgeting, and the ability to pivot will be the difference between winning and losing this holiday season. If you haven’t started planning yet - now’s the time to get moving!
